January 21, 2026

December Investment Newsletter – 2025 in Review: The Year Private Credit Became the Market

After a year defined by conviction, November brought hesitation. Markets have wobbled as investors digest the twin realities of higher-for-longer rates and the staggering capital costs of the AI buildout. For allocators, the question has shifted from how to play the upside to how to protect against paying for it twice — once through inflated equity valuations, and again through the infrastructure bill now coming due.

With banks still retrenching and traditional lenders constrained, direct lending scaled with remarkable speed, and LPs (across pensions, sovereigns, endowments, and an expanding universe of family offices) treated the asset class as a core allocation rather than a tactical one.

The opportunity set widened beyond corporate lending into NAV loans, specialty finance, and asset-backed structures, and the year’s most successful managers were those who paired underwriting discipline with genuine sourcing advantage. We saw this firsthand in the engagement data across our platform and at our events: allocators consistently prioritized credit managers able to articulate where incremental risk was being taken, how portfolios would behave through a full cycle, and why their origination networks remained defensible as capital flooded in.

It is worth noting that several leading firms helped shape this conversation in our 2025 Private Credit Report: Victory Park Capital, Arrow Global, and Pemberton, with each offering a distinct lens on where credit markets are heading and how investors should think about building exposure in an environment where spreads compress even as complexity rises.

Their perspectives echoed the broader mood of the year: allocators want in, but they want to understand exactly what they’re buying. As we close out 2025, the question for 2026 is no longer whether private credit continues to grow, but whether the industry can scale without diluting its edge. The firms that answer that question convincingly will define the next chapter of alternatives.

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