As we turn the page into June, markets continue to test investor patience and conviction. After a turbulent spring defined by sharp intraday volatility, shifting rate expectations, and geopolitical recalibrations, investors are navigating an unusually complex landscape. The U.S. dollar has posted its steepest year-to-date decline on record, bond yields remain volatile but range-bound, and equity markets are digesting a mixed macro backdrop with increasing selectivity.
Beneath the surface, capital is rotating—not just between regions or sectors, but between risk regimes. Long-duration assets are regaining appeal in some corners, while private capital flows remain disciplined, if not cautious.
Against this backdrop, global allocators are doubling down on strategic flexibility and their commitment to alternative investments. At Global Alts New York, we surveyed nearly 100 LPs to understand short term concerns and long term planning. Over 90% of respondents reported actively allocating in the first 5 months of the year, and less than half reported redemptions.
We also witnessed a marked shift in market sentiment.
The chart below compares investor expectations for S&P 500 performance in 2025 as surveyed in April and June. The most notable shift is the sharp decline in bearish sentiment: in April, over 45% of respondents expected the index to finish the year down, but by June, that figure had dropped to under 15%. This change likely reflects easing macro concerns, including stabilizing interest rates and a less volatile dollar, which have helped restore some confidence in equity markets.
At the same time, optimism has climbed steadily. The share of investors expecting the S&P 500 to rise between 5% and 10% has more than doubled since April, making it the most popular outlook in June. Expectations for flat or modest gains under 5% have remained relatively stable, while the number of investors forecasting gains above 10% remains low—suggesting that while sentiment has improved, investors remain measured rather than exuberant. Overall, the shift points to a market recalibrating from defensiveness to cautious optimism.
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