Ted Seides of Capital Allocators moderated a candid Global Alts New York 2026 panel on the private credit reset. Terry Monis, co-CIO of $8B Los Angeles multifamily office ICG Advisors, joined Tod Trabocco of StepStone Group and Jonathan Berger, co-head of credit at $25B Third Point. The three allocators and managers worked through the gap between headline anxiety and asset-level reality, the 150 basis point move in direct-lending spreads over 90 days, and the question every LP is asking right now: which managers actually survive when valuations finally reprice
The private credit reset is no longer a forecast. Berger opened with a number: spreads on regular-way core direct lending have widened 150 basis points in the last three months, with capital solutions pricing now running 800 to 1,000 over plus equity kickers on deals that priced at 650 to 700 a year ago. Trabocco framed the same move differently. He told the Global Alts New York room that institutional LPs do not recognize the gating headlines. They read them, they understand the structural pressure on the perpetual BDCs, but at the asset level the stress is not what the retail-channel narrative suggests.
Why the private credit reset is a correction, not a crash
Monis argued the asset class is not unwinding. It is going through the first real test of a cycle that ran almost entirely through zero rates. “There will be a shakeout,” he said. Marginal GPs and marginal fund managers will exit. People will lose money. The quality managers will prove resilience and prove they can generate returns. He pushed back on the doom narrative without dismissing it, which is how the panel earned trust with the LP audience it was speaking to.
Trabocco delivered the line that frames the entire debate. The panel is not talking about a crash. It is talking about a great disappointment. A lot of people were sold a product. A lot of people are going to be greatly disappointed because the funds they sit in are now on the back foot, locked into vintages that need to fund redemptions and cannot lean into the more attractive deals showing up today.
The vintage problem inside the private credit reset
Berger pointed to 2021 as the source of most of the stress now surfacing. Flows surged into perpetual structures during zero-rate post-COVID conditions, deals got done at valuations and structures that should not have cleared, and the correction underway is mostly a vintage problem rather than an asset-class problem. Default rates are rising, recoveries are coming down, and spreads are widening, but institutional capital is still allocating. The reset is healthy. It just punishes the wrong vintage and the wrong structure.
Trabocco added a useful frame for allocators trying to underwrite GPs through the current dispersion. Most people think lenders want companies whose EBITDA climbs in a straight line. That is actually the second least desirable loan. The one nobody wants is the cliff. The one most lenders should want bounces along. The reframe matters because much of the panic narrative assumes lenders need growth to be paid. They do not. They need coverage and collateral, and they need workout experience when neither holds.
What allocators should actually underwrite
Monis returned to the experience question. His shop screens for managers with workout reps, with the elbows to sit in the trenches when a credit goes sideways, and with gray hair. A large share of capital deployed into private credit over the last cycle is run by people who have never seen a full credit cycle, COVID excepted. That is the operational risk the headlines miss.
Berger closed by separating valuation risk from credit risk. A software portfolio company can see its valuation cut in half and still cover interest, still preserve EV coverage, still trade through a refinancing. Lenders have levers. They can pay down a portion, take an equity slice, restructure into a second lien. The mechanical “we take the keys” outcome is one path of many.
The panel did not pretend the reset is over. They argued it is bifurcating. The marginal product gets disappointed. The quality book gets paid. For LPs, the work now sits in manager selection, workout track record, and vintage discipline.