How are investors playing the massive wave of AI capex hitting markets?
We have answers.
iConnections surveyed hundreds of leading allocator decision makers in 2025 and 2026. Here’s what’s changing:
- AI didn’t just gain traction. It took over the conversation. In the last few years, it’s been a solid and growing theme. By 2026, it has become a central driver of entire portfolios, shaping how allocators think about markets, asset allocation, and where capital goes next.
In 2025, adoption was meaningful but still in development. 54% of allocators reported investing in AI-related assets, themes, or strategies, while 45% indicated their firms were using AI as an investment or operational tool. These figures point to a market that had moved beyond curiosity. AI was no longer a fringe allocation, but it had not yet reached consensus status. It was being explored both as a source of returns and as an internal capability, but the framing remained tactical rather than foundational.
By 2026, that framing changed decisively. AI is no longer simply a theme within portfolios. It is now a core lens through which allocators interpret the investment landscape. A striking 83% of allocators cite the AI supercycle as a top theme shaping investment sentiment, placing it alongside macro forces such as interest rates and geopolitical risk in terms of importance.
In 2025, just over 50% of respondents listed the AI supercycle as a top theme, behind political and regulatory changes. The shift is not just in adoption levels, but in mindset. AI has moved from being one opportunity among many to a structural driver of capital allocation decisions.
Source: iConnections Global Allocator Reports 2025 & 2026. Numbers will sum to >100, as LPs could select multiple answers
Where AI Supercycle Allocators See Opportunity
What is particularly notable is how allocators are choosing to express this conviction. The opportunity set is not being pursued uniformly across the AI ecosystem. Instead, there is a clear preference for areas that provide exposure to the underlying buildout of the AI economy, rather than purely to its most visible applications.
In 2026, 44% of allocators identified AI infrastructure as the most compelling opportunity. This includes the physical and digital backbone required to support AI deployment, such as data centers, energy capacity, semiconductor supply chains, and enabling technologies. The emphasis on infrastructure reflects a broader allocator tendency to favor durable, cash flow–oriented exposure over more speculative growth segments.
This positioning is increasingly reinforced by what allocators are seeing in public markets. Recent earnings reports from major technology firms have highlighted significant increases in AI-related capital expenditure, particularly in data centers, compute capacity, and energy infrastructure. That level of spending serves as a real-time validation of the infrastructure thesis. It signals that the buildout phase of the AI cycle is not theoretical. It is already underway at scale, supported by some of the largest balance sheets in the world.
At the same time, the opportunity is not limited to infrastructure alone. Allocators are also exploring AI across a range of adjacent areas, including private equity, venture capital, and public equities. However, these exposures are increasingly being approached with greater selectivity and discipline, particularly given the rapid repricing that has occurred across AI-linked assets.
Where Allocators See Risk
If opportunity defines the upside narrative, valuation defines the constraint. The most consistent and dominant risk identified by allocators in 2026 is not technological uncertainty or adoption risk. It is pricing.
This year, a majority 59% of allocators cite valuation bubbles as the top risk associated with AI investing. This is a critical signal. It suggests that while allocators broadly agree on the long-term significance of AI, they are far less confident in the near-term entry points and pricing dynamics across the space.
This tension is also being reinforced by market dynamics. The same earnings reports that point to unprecedented levels of AI investment have also raised questions around return on invested capital, payback periods, and the sustainability of current spending levels. For allocators, that creates a more complex equation. The scale of investment confirms the opportunity, but it also increases the risk that expectations embedded in valuations may be running ahead of realized outcomes.
The result is a market characterized by high conviction but cautious implementation. Allocators are not avoiding AI. They are recalibrating how they access it.
The Emerging Allocation Framework
Taken together, these data points point to a more nuanced allocator approach to AI in 2026. The shift is not simply from “no exposure” to “more exposure.” It is from broad curiosity to targeted execution.
Three defining characteristics emerge:
- Selective Expression of Conviction
Allocators are aligning with the AI theme, but they are doing so through specific parts of the value chain. Infrastructure has emerged as a preferred entry point, while more crowded segments face greater scrutiny.
- Separation of Theme and Timing
There is a clear distinction between belief in the long-term trajectory of AI and confidence in current valuations. Allocators are willing to wait, structure exposure differently, or access the theme indirectly to manage this tension.
- Integration into Core Portfolio Thinking
AI is no longer treated as a standalone allocation bucket. It is increasingly influencing decisions across asset classes, including private markets, public equities, real assets, and even credit.
A Market Defined by Conviction and Constraint
The year-over-year shift in AI sentiment encapsulates a broader evolution in allocator behavior. In 2025, the question was whether AI would become a meaningful part of portfolios. In 2026, that question has been answered. The focus has shifted to how to gain exposure without overpaying for it.
This creates a market environment where:
- Demand is high, driven by widespread belief in the AI supercycle
- Supply is abundant, with a growing number of strategies and managers seeking to capture that demand
- Selectivity is increasing, as allocators differentiate between durable opportunities and overheated segments
The net result is not a pullback from AI, but a more disciplined and structured approach to allocation. Allocators are leaning into the theme, but they are doing so with a clear awareness of the risks embedded in current market pricing.
Bottom Line
AI has transitioned from an emerging allocation to a central organizing theme in allocator portfolios. Adoption has broadened, conviction has deepened, and the opportunity set has expanded. At the same time, concerns around valuation have introduced a meaningful constraint on how capital is deployed.
Allocators believe in the AI supercycle. The defining question for 2026 is not whether to invest, but where in the ecosystem to participate and at what price.