Bloomberg’s Natalia Kniazhevich moderated a Global Alts New York 2026 panel on the SpaceX IPO. The session explored the broader IPO window opening for the highest-quality private growth companies. Paul Abrahimzadeh, partner at 1789 Capital and one of the largest holders of SpaceX through eight tranches, walked through the underwriting case for the largest IPO in history. Stéphane Gruffat of Deutsche Bank ECM joined from the capital-markets side. Legendary short-seller Jim Chanos provided the bearish counterpoint in a separate fireside with the same moderator. Together, the sessions delivered the most complete bull-bear framing of any IPO event in recent memory.

The IPO window has reopened, and the SpaceX print is the headline trade. Paul told the room the deal is roughly four times oversubscribed. It enters Friday with around $30 trillion of total addressable market across three subsidiaries that each clear $1 billion in revenue. Notably, Starlink supplies 60% of revenue today with durable cash flow. Meanwhile, AI takes 60% of CapEx today, with sell-side underwriters modeling 100% revenue compound annual growth over five years that would take the business from $20 billion of revenue to $1 trillion.

Why the IPO window is structural, not seasonal

Paul made the structural argument. The IPO window has opening because the highest-quality private companies have aged into a stage where the private market cannot absorb them efficiently. In particular, OpenAI’s $120 billion private raise was, by his framing, the largest equity capital markets transaction in history. As a result, the public market is the only venue with the depth to clear what is queued up behind SpaceX.

Gruffat ran the historic comp. Alibaba was a 20-times oversubscribed $25 billion IPO a decade ago, implying roughly $500 billion of demand. Similarly, SpaceX approaches that order of magnitude on a single Friday print.

The bearish case: Jim Chanos on the IPO window

Chanos offered the bluntest read in the room. “This is really a hopes and dreams IPO,” he said. Even so, the company is valued at close to $2 trillion on $19 billion of revenue with negative free cash flow. He compared the premium being paid to Elon Musk’s involvement to how Tesla trades. That stock commands a massive premium to the underlying car business based on promises of robotics and full self-driving. “Space is coming at roughly 90 times revenues. Bull markets put a premium on promises. Bear markets put a discount on reality. Right now we’re clearly in the former.”

What allocators should price into the IPO window

Paul listed three risks investors should price. To start, the first is execution: SpaceX has to hit an unprecedented 100% compound annual revenue growth rate over five years. The second is the cap table — Facebook has delivered roughly 20% total return CAGR since its IPO; By contrast, Uber has compounded around 6% per year. Both had deep private cap tables. Therefore, the IPO window does not guarantee post-IPO returns. The third is plumbing: SpaceX will likely trade $30 to $50 billion or more on day one, unprecedented single-ticker liquidity that will test index-inclusion rules.