The “golden age of private credit” just hit a wall. Jamie Dimon’s cockroach comments, the Blue Owl freeze, and software loan stress are spreading — and this panel of industry veterans doesn’t sugarcoat it.
Katie Koch (TCW) reveals why they have zero exposure to software loans and compares current behavior to 2008’s “housing isn’t cyclical” mindset. Ken Kencel (Churchill) drops a stunning stat: only 5% of today’s managers existed 15 years ago. And Levoyd Robinson (CFI) describes building a full CLO model in 2 hours with AI.
KEY TOPICS:
- “Cockroaches are back” — Jamie Dimon’s warning
- TCW’s zero software exposure — 3.5x leverage vs. market’s 4-5x
- “Software isn’t cyclical” = “Housing isn’t cyclical” (2008)
- Private credit behaving like “growth equity with a debt label”
- Only 5% of current managers existed 15 years ago
- Retail capital as marginal buyer — the real risk
- AI in underwriting: CLO model built in 2 hours with Claude
- Rescue finance: the big opportunity
TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Introduction
1:36 “Jamie Dimon’s cockroach comments”
2:34 Katie Koch on excess in private credit
4:15 “We have zero exposure to software loans”
4:47 “Last thing they said wasn’t cyclical was housing in 2008”
5:40 “Growth equity with a debt label”
7:18 “Core middle market is the best-kept secret”
10:50 “Only 5% of managers existed 15 years ago”
13:00 “Retail has been the marginal buyer and price setter”
16:00 “Go where the capital’s not”
17:34 “How many have tried Claude Opus?”
18:45 “Full CLO model in 2 hours using AI”
19:50 “Most exciting thing I’ve seen in 37 years”
23:40 “Rescue finance could outperform private equity”
SPEAKERS:
Jeff Assaf — CIO, ICG Advisors (Moderator)
Katie Koch — President & CEO, TCW
Ken Kencel — President & CEO, Churchill Asset Management
Brendan McGovern — Senior Partner & Head, Private Credit, 26North
Levoyd Robinson — CEO & CIO, CFI Partners
